On Thursday (August 28) during Asian trading hours, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly and fell. U.S. crude oil futures dropped 0.56%, trading at $63.79 per barrel at the time of writing; Brent crude oil futures fell 0.46%, trading at $67.74 per barrel. In the previous trading session (August 27), both benchmarks had risen by more than 1%.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 22, exceeding market expectations of a 1.9 million barrel draw, reflecting strong demand ahead of the Labor Day holiday. However, one analyst noted that Labor Day usually signals the end of the summer driving season, after which U.S. demand typically enters a relatively sluggish stage. Meanwhile, one of the current market focuses is India’s energy strategy. Following U.S. President Trump’s announcement to raise tariffs on Indian imports to as high as 50%, India’s purchases of Russian crude are facing increasing pressure. Still, markets generally expect India will not immediately alter its procurement structure in the short term.

Recently, oil prices have continued to be driven by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy. The escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, including Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, has paradoxically led to increased Russian crude exports. These developments—ranging from the war itself, U.S. sanctions on Russia, and India’s stance on Russian crude purchases—have collectively influenced recent oil price trends, providing support this week. Bitop’s market analysis team noted that whether rate cuts will occur at the September 16–17 meeting will depend on the latest economic data. Any changes in interest rates that stimulate economic activity could further affect crude demand. Investors are advised to closely monitor interest rate decisions, Thursday’s U.S. GDP data, and Friday’s PCE inflation report.

On the daily chart, U.S. crude has found repeated support near the $60 level, forming a short-term bottom, while resistance around $65 has yet to be broken. Inventory data suggests the market has rebound potential, but sustainability still depends on whether demand remains robust. If inventories continue to decline while demand stays strong, oil prices may break through the $65 resistance level; otherwise, a retest of the $60 support level cannot be ruled out.

On the 1-hour chart, yesterday’s oil price saw a slight pullback during Asian and European sessions, then stabilized near $63 before a bullish rebound. Overnight, prices briefly spiked above $64.2, with the daily candlestick closing as a recovery-oriented bullish bar. Short-term moving averages are flattening, MACD histogram is narrowing, and RSI remains in neutral territory, signaling a lack of clear direction. Short-term support lies in the $62.8–62.3 range, while resistance is seen at $64.8–65.3.

For today’s crude trading strategy, it is recommended to prioritize selling on rebounds and buying on dips as a secondary approach. In the short term, watch for resistance at the $65.0–66.0 zone on the upside and support at the $62.0–61.0 zone on the downside.

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