In early Asian trading on Friday (June 27), spot gold fluctuated slightly lower and was last seen trading around $3,323.28 per ounce. On Thursday, spot gold remained stable, closing at $3,327.60 per ounce, down about 0.13%, after briefly rising to the $3,350 mark earlier in the session.

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has diminished gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a pullback in prices over recent trading days. Meanwhile, tariff-related uncertainty from the Trump administration has added new risks to the market. Tariffs could potentially push up inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, which in turn could pressure gold. However, if the inflationary impact of tariffs proves limited, the Fed may move to cut rates sooner, creating upside potential for gold. Speculation that President Trump may expedite the nomination of the next Fed Chair has also stirred market volatility, as the policy stance of the nominee could influence interest rate expectations and thus impact gold prices.

Despite the appearance of calm in prices, gold remains under the influence of multiple intersecting factors. Market sentiment appears fatigued and cautious, leading to soft, corrective price action. In addition, traders who were trapped at previous historical highs are using rebounds as opportunities to exit positions, weakening bullish momentum. Nevertheless, investors have not completely withdrawn from the gold market but are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data.

The Bitop market analysis team advises monitoring several key U.S. indicators today:

• Core PCE Price Index YoY and MoM (May)

• Personal Spending MoM (May)

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June)

• 1-Year Inflation Expectations Final (June)

As a preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, the PCE data is expected to be a critical driver for gold. A higher-than-expected reading may dampen gold’s appeal by reducing expectations of a Fed rate cut. Conversely, softer-than-expected data could increase the likelihood of policy easing and support gold prices. Additionally, weaker consumer spending figures would also be gold-positive. Looking further ahead, structurally low interest rates, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and potential dollar weakness could provide long-term support for gold.

On the daily chart, after a week of steady declines, gold has returned to the $3,300 level, just shy of historical highs. Given current fundamental factors, there’s still room for further downside in the short term, signaling that bearish momentum remains significant. However, as the moving averages have yet to form a clear bearish crossover, a large move before the weekly close is not guaranteed.

On the 4-hour chart, despite previously surging past the $3,400 mark, gold has shown a clear reversal pattern, now trading below short-term moving averages. The MACD has crossed below the zero line, confirming a shift back into bearish territory. If gold loses the $3,300 support level, it may resume its downward trend.

For today's short-term gold trading strategy, it is recommended to focus primarily on short-selling on rebounds, buying on dips as a secondary approach.In the short term, key resistance is seen in the $3,300–$3,320 range, while key support lies in the $3,290–$3,270 range.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.